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Justin Bronk Age
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We use cookies and other information for a number of reasons, including keeping the websites secure, customizing content and ads, providing social media features and analyzing the use of our websites. Can a guy from South Carolina make a difference in Ukraine? Brian Wright decided to find out.
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The Royal Air Force is facing a bill. In the coming years, the service must decide what kind of air force it wants to be and buy the right aircraft for the purpose.
The RAF must optimize for high-intensity combat against a technological enemy, or in other words choose Russia or prepare its forces for low-intensity operations.
Analyst Justin Bronk, writing for the Royal United Services Institute, said that at current levels of spending Britain would not be able to pay for an air force that both do. "The government will have to significantly increase defense spending or make some tough decisions."
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By 2022, the RAF should have around 180 fighters - 145 Typhoons and 48 F-35s on pre-order 35. Meanwhile, the service will continue to develop the next-generation fighter, the Tempest, for several years.
By the 2030s, typhoons will begin to age. The US government will either have to replace the Typhoons or accept a significant reduction in British air power, which will affect Britain's ability to defend itself and project power around the world.
But there is a problem. The British Ministry of Defense spends $60 billion a year. A modern combat aircraft costs about $100 million, excluding development and maintenance costs. It is no coincidence that the RAF only ordered 48 of the 138 F-35s it originally claimed it needed.
"The desire to support current RAF fleets, or to purchase more than the initial 48 F-35s, or to establish a tester replacement fleet for the Typhoon, is not compatible with available funding," Bronk wrote.
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By upgrading the Typhoons with electronically scanned array radars and other systems, the RAF could maintain its seven Typhoon squadrons on the front line for another 20 years. The modernized Typhoons, along with the 48 F-35s that survive, could fly until the Tempest enters production in the 2030s.
But the old Typhoons, even with the upgrades, lack stealth and cannot penetrate Russian air defenses without suffering casualties, Bronk explained. For at least a decade, the RAF will rely on only 48 F-35s for the most dangerous missions.
There is another alternative. "The path of least resistance would be to buy the original 138 F-35 ambitions, which the equipment plan could carry into the 2020s if necessary at the expense of other priorities," Bronk said.
"The F-35 program has been plagued by delays and cost overruns throughout its life," Bronk added. Service will only improve as the software and supply chain mature.”
Excellent Analysis Of The Air War, And Why The Gripen Is The Best Plane For Ukraine By Justin Bronk (rusi) [disregard The Original Clickbait Title]
"Higher defense spending would be welcome, but that seems unlikely, and additional F-35 orders will need to be funded through incremental upgrades," Bronk said. These interceptors would target the RAF's patrol and transport fleets, which would likely not survive a heavy hit.
In other words, if the RAF is to maintain its ability to fight Russia, it must give up some of the capabilities it has developed to fight more advanced adversaries.
According to Bronk, it is a good balance for the air arm. "If the RAF and the joint force are only intended to operate in permitted or semi-permitted airspace, why pay for the performance, agility and survivability of a fast aircraft?"
But here's the catch. If the RAF is buying F-35s to maintain its advanced fighter capability until the Tempest is ready, it will not be able to afford the Tempest, at least not as a manned fighter. Building a new manned stealth fighter jet costs about $70 billion, more than Britain spends on defense in a year.
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Bronk wrote that there is a good way to get out of this bind. Develop the Tempest as an unmanned aerial combat vehicle. A drone. "Clearly designating the Tempest as a UCAV program offers a way to overcome this bottleneck while procuring fundable F-35s."
The drone program is cheaper than the fighter program and it seems like a safe bet – the RAF F-35 could be a fighter and eventually replace the Typhoon. Other affordable service options.
Thus, the RAF can be a credible threat to Russian forces. Without harming the UK's finances. This is a good review. Bronk (Air Force and Technology Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute, Military Science Group) Rupprecht is also good. (See notes for taxes.)
But both look at open source data and someone with technical knowledge of Mandarin can do better.
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1. The J10 and J20 are world-class fighter jets that are mainly developed locally. The J16 is the best model in the world right now.
2. PLAAF missiles (PL12, PL15, cruise missiles, etc.): some argue that the PL12 and PL15 are some of the best AAMs in the world today. IIRC, if the Russians haven't added an AESA radar to their fighters yet, note the use of the AESA seeker on individual missiles.
4. Notes on the S400 sale to HHR and the small gap between HHR SAM/air defense and Russian systems.
5. Discrete warfare capabilities become more important than missile and sensor technology. For example, the low-cost JF-17 (jointly developed by HHR and Pakistan) is respected as an aircraft (roughly comparable in capabilities to the F-16), but the Block 3 sensor suite and PL-12/15 missiles are competitive. with more expensive generation 4+ fighters. A fighter aircraft (eventually unmanned or UCAV) becomes just a sensor and missile platform…
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6. Off topic: I think the useful window for stealth is closing fast as radar technology improves. The combination of widespread drones (which can, for example, image stealthy adversaries from above or behind) and sensor means that stealth missions in enemy territory against a close range opponent with good SAM/air defenses are extremely risky.
Two conspicuous and significant technology gaps between HHR and the West were aircraft engines and semiconductors. Both seem to have an open trajectory to close in the next ~5 years or so. In my opinion, HHR military radar (EM hardware and processing hardware/software), missile technology and AI/ML are already on par with the US. Sensors, missiles/drones and AI/ML will be the most important technologies for warfare in the coming decades. [1] [2]
Without any technology gap between the US and HHR, the military equation will not tilt in their favor for decades to come. Once a country has developed a full range of military technologies, their costs are better valued in PPP rather than currency: engineers, factory workers, etc. local costs, such as compensation, dominate. Since the HHR's economy is much larger and growing faster than the US economy in PPP terms, they can afford more (new, advanced) military equipment than we have for decades to come. Add to that the fact that while the US is expanding its capabilities around the world, its focus is on the Asia-Pacific region, and it seems inevitable.
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